The elections have come and gone, and now we’re launched into the great unknown.
So what have we learned about the politics of Australia in the past few weeks?
1) The Greens have gained the status of a genuine third party and now hold the balance of power in the Senate, and possible in the House of Representatives. But have the seeds of their destruction been sown in their success?
I have argued previously that the Greens are lucky to have Bob Brown and perhaps he will be able to save the Greens from themselves.
Someone mentioned to me that it would seem that the Greens are divided into three factions – not a good situation when their parliamentary party room numbers only 10.
Firstly, there are the disaffected voters looking for a party that is neither Labor nor Liberal. Secondly, there the genuine green warriors who only care about the environment and finally, there are the radicals who are fighting the establishment and Tony Abbott. These are the watermelons – green on the outside, red on the inside.
This dynamic was on display when Bob Brown was standing next to Adam Brandt at a press conference on Sunday. Brown was talking about finding a path to stability and talking to both leaders of the major parties, speaking of a genuine consensus that will be needed if the Greens are to be a real third party.
Bandt, meanwhile, was only willing to consider a Gillard offer.
He will have to be taught the importance of party loyalty as will all the new Senators (such as Lee Rhiannon who has already bucked Browen’s directives regarding her Senate campaign), otherwise the Greens may soon ape the major parties with a leadership spill of their very own.
They will have to be the balance between the two big parties – as opposed to an ideological juggernaut that acts as a spoiler against the major parties – and while Brown has expressed his willingness to fill that space, he will have to bring the rest of his party with him.
2) The new government – whatever its composition – is going to have a hell of a time trying to appease the Greens and Bob Katter.
In Europe there are countries that have parliaments made up of numerous parties and always have minority governments. The difference is that in Europe, there are usually a ‘right block’, a ‘left block’ and then a middle ground of parties that swing both ways. It is usually this middle block that allows stability by supporting the largest party (or block) from either side.
Many times the party with the largest primary vote doesn’t form government if it cannot command the majority of the parliament.
The problem here in Australia is that there is no one sitting in the middle. The Greens are to the left of Labor, while the three independents as a block would probably ideologically fit in with the Liberals. Should one of the blocks not command a majority it would be up to the cross-benchers breaking into two (since I cannot see Bob Katter sitting in a government with the Greens), and making up the numbers for Labor. Uncomfortably.
3) Most people are seeing this election as unprecedented, but it has not emerged from nowhere. This result is the culmination of three years of unprecedented events in the political landscape. Here is an incomplete list of some of the highly unusual goings on:
. Rudd gaining the Labor leadership without being part of a faction.
. Rudd’s incredible rise in popularity.
. The sitting PM (Howard) losing his seat.
. Rudd’s sudden crash in the polls.
. The change of the first term PM due to bad polls (even Gordon Brown was allowed to go to the elections as leader in spite of very obvious public dislike for him).
. The ousted PM remained in parliament and recontested the next election (the last PM to do this was Whitlam in 1972, and he continued as leader of his party).
. The rise of the Greens – eventually gaining a seat in the House of Representatives.
. The hung parliament.
. The high level of informal votes.
The sheer number and importance of these novel events mean that the Australian political landscape no longer resembles any previous maps.
4) Herein lies the main lesson in the election, things will be changing in Australia over the next electoral term (whether it lasts 3 years or not).
Politics in this country lies at the crossroads and the window of opportunity for genuine and meaningful reform lies in this electoral term, where so much can still happen.
The Greens could succeed and become a constructive force in politics, Parliament could be reformed to better suit democracy, and the Greens experiment could even give voters the will to vote for more minor parties with confidence. We could even see the rise of a fourth or fifth party.
This result might even encourage the major parties to reconnect with the people (as opposed to focus groups) via local members looking after their constituents.
There’s legitimate cause for optimism as well as trepidation as we await the results of this unprecedented election.